IN THE NEWS
A "new" Cold War?
Are we in a new Cold War? We would have to compare current events to the 1950s. What is a reasonable basis of comparison? The Doomsday Clock. It was invented for the Cold War. You will recall from our January Newsletter the Doomsday Clock is set at the same level of danger as it was set in 1953. What was happening in 1953? The Chinese were deeply involved in the Korean war where US soldiers were in active and open combat with the Peoples Republic of China. General Douglas MacArthur had devised a plan to drop nuclear bombs on China to stop the Chinese Army.
The Soviet Union while not admitting to supplying troops to assist North Korea. We would learn later Russians were flying missions and shooting at and killing American Pilots. As well as Russia was supplying arms to China critical to China to support China’s combat effort against the United Nation troops.
In March 1953 the Soviet authorities reported that Joseph Stalin died of a brain hemorrhage caused by a stroke and Russian Communist Party voted that the war in Korea should be ended. Mao Zedong then leader of China received the news with dismay, but he knew that his army could not continue the war without Soviet assistance. The war in Korea would be over and an armistice signed within the next 4 months.
I find this is similar today on 3 different levels:
1. We have an internal struggle in the Ukraine. Minority Russians inside Ukraine seek to keep their status and join Russia from Ukraine. The minority tries to rule the majority. Like North Korea did.
2. Russia seeks to use Ukraine to reach the Black Sea and create a way to block any potential threat to Russia proper. Similar to how the Soviet Union supplying North Korea and China tried to block the western expansion of personal freedom and break into two pieces the one country Korea.
3. Ukrainians seek to maintain their independence and democracy. Like the South Koreans were defending themselves from the North.
We see the incompetence of Russia. A group which is an off shoot of the Islamic State claims responsibility for the terrorist attack in Moscow. This is very bad for the Russians for 3 reasons:
1. The CIA warned Putin.
2. The Russian FSB (formerly known as KGB) failed to stop the attack.
3. Putin, the President of Russia, in an interview claimed the US was trying to scare Russia and laughed off the warning.
Now Russia is unable to deny it was a terrorist attack. Plain for everyone to see it was an attack missed by the Russian security service. The fact that Russia is 30% Muslim raises the possibility that maybe some Russians did not like the result of Putin being granted another term as President. The idea that the terrorist had to go to Ukraine is silly – in a country the size of Russia there are much better places to melt away.
Now clearly there are minority groups in Russia who are not happy. The population of Muslims in Russia is rising. Meanwhile the populations of ethnic Russians are in decline and they are desperate to hold on to power.
After the President of Russia organized his own victory celebration, the attack is an embarrasment. To then have a terrorist attack is an event where we can see this will not play well inside Russia.
Meanwhile the Russian Freedom Fighters have driven back the Russian Army from Belgorod, inside Russia. That is the classic definition of a Revolution. A revolution is when an area of a country is outside the military control of the seat of power. The area of concern Belgorod is not under Moscow’s control. This can start something that can change the face of Russia as we know it. Too early to tell how long this “Revolution” or Rebellion will last or if it has legs.
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