"The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time," Abraham Lincoln
This May and June, the global news cycle reads like a pressure cooker on high heat.
Protests are spreading across the United States, with riots escalating in major cities like Los Angeles. In the Middle East, Israel is now openly at war with Iran, marking a dangerous new phase in regional conflict. At the same time, Russia has launched a summer offensive aimed at further capturing territory in Ukraine-the largest country in Europe by landmass.
A global tariff war is complicating international trade flows, adding to inflationary pressures and increasing the cost of doing business around the world. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has chosen to leave interest rates unchanged, citing a mixed bag of economic signals and persistent uncertainty.
Less noticed, but deeply significant: the U.S. bank reserve requirement remains at 0%. In other words, banks are not required to hold any portion of your deposits in reserve. This comes alongside the sobering fact that the FDIC holds just $347 billion in reserve to insure more than $18 trillion in bank deposits nationwide. While these developments may feel overwhelming, it’s worth remembering that history tends to rhyme. Geopolitical tension, financial instability, and social unrest often come in cycles. These moments of heightened uncertainty have in the past preceded major shifts - both painful and transformative.
As the old saying goes, “It is darkest before the dawn.”